Notes, Chapter 16

AFH-1 1 Nov 2024

16.5. Cognitive Bias

In thinking about problems or challenges, we are influenced by a number of factors that shape how we interpret information, weigh its relevance, and ultimately decide upon a course of action or inaction as the situation dictates. Cognitive biases are common ways of thinking that can cause individuals to make irrational decisions in some circumstances.

Cognitive bias in our decision process results in several 'traps' decision-makers need to guard against. Some common types of cognitive bias are briefly described here.

Overconfidence bias. Humans are overconfident in their own judgments, often unreasonably so.

Sunk-cost effect. The sunk-cost effect is the tendency to escalate commitment to a course of action where there has already been a substantial investment or resources in time, money, or personnel, despite poor performance.

Availability bias. Availability bias is the tendency to place too much emphasis on the most immediate examples to come to mind (e.g., vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples).

Confirmation bias. Confirmation bias, the most prevalent bias. It refers to our tendency to gather and use information that confirms our existing views while downplaying or avoiding information that challenges our working hypothesis.

Anchoring bias. Anchoring bias is the unconscious tendency to allow an extreme reference point to distort our estimates, even when that initial reference point is completely arbitrary. In a negotiation, this bias can work in favor of the side that stakes out the initial reference point- both sides tend to use the initial position as a reference point for the solution.

Illusory bias. Illusory bias is the tendency to jump to conclusions about the relationship between two variables when in fact no relationship (correlation) exists.

Hindsight bias. Hindsight bias is the tendency to judge past events as easily predictable when in fact they were not easily foreseen. This bias limits our ability to learn from past mistakes and may affect how leaders evaluate subordinate decision-making.

Egocentrism. Egocentrism is when we attribute more credit to ourselves for group or collaborative outcome than an outside party that made significant contributions to the end result.

AFH-1 15 Feb 2025

16.5. Cognitive Bias

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AFH-1 1 Nov 2024

16.7. Critical Thinking in Groups

Conventional wisdom holds that groups make better decisions than individuals because they draw from a diverse base of talent and experience. However, Airmen must be conscious of how group decisions are made and create teams capable of applying critical thought to problems in group settings. Airmen engaged in group decision-making must consciously structure the process to encourage critical thinking to prevent momentum from simply leading the group toward conformity. There are a few things to consider when using groups for decision-making.

Who should be involved in the decision process?

In what sort of environment should the decision take place?

How will the participants communicate?

How will the leader control the decision process?

Wisdom of Groups. While keeping in mind that groupthink does exist, consider establishing groups for decision-making diverse, made up of members that represent many different disciplines, perspectives, and areas of expertise. Have the group discussions in a decentralized location, be able to effectively aggregate all the individual judgments, and seek group members who are independent, meaning not subordinate to one another.

Hindrances to Groups. Behaviors that are contradictory to working in groups, such as withholding information for personal reasons or filtering information to accommodate a personal bias, should not be tolerated. Another behavior that should not be allowed is selectively presenting information up the chain of command to inadvertently affect the group's efforts. In addition to this, leaders who are in positions to make decisions based on the recommendations of a group should be aware of how the group was set-up and how well it operated to have an understanding of what the decision was, as well as the dynamics of how the decision was made.

AFH-1 15 Feb 2025

16.7. Critical Thinking in Groups

Conventional wisdom holds that groups make better decisions than individuals because they draw from a base of talent and experience. However, Airmen must be conscious of how group decisions are made and create teams capable of applying critical thought to problems in group settings. Airmen engaged in group decision-making must consciously structure the process to encourage critical thinking to prevent momentum from simply leading the group toward conformity. There are a few things to consider when using groups for decision-making.

Who should be involved in the decision process?

In what sort of environment should the decision take place?

How will the participants communicate?

How will the leader control the decision process?

Wisdom of Groups. While keeping in mind that groupthink does exist, consider establishing groups for decision-making, made up of members that represent many different disciplines and areas of expertise. Have the group discussions in a decentralized location, be able to effectively aggregate all the individual judgments, and seek group members who are independent, meaning not subordinate to one another.

Hindrances to Groups. Behaviors that are contradictory to working in groups, such as withholding information for personal reasons or filtering information should not be tolerated. Another behavior that should not be allowed is selectively presenting information up the chain of command to inadvertently affect the group's efforts. In addition to this, leaders who are in positions to make decisions based on the recommendations of a group should be aware of how the group was set-up and how well it operated to have an understanding of what the decision was, as well as the dynamics of how the decision was made.

AFH-1 1 Nov 2024

16.8. Groupthink

Reducing Groupthink. If groupthink is present, outside consultation may be required to get the group on the right track. In other cases, Airmen can work to minimize structural barriers to candid dialogue and reduce groupthink tendencies within their organization. Some ways to reduce groupthink include: defining roles within decision-making teams by giving responsibility to members for aspects of the analysis process and holding them accountable for representing these perspectives within the group, reducing homogeneity of team composition to bring in diverse or alternative perspectives, reducing status difference and rating chain conflicts between team members that might hinder candid dialogue, and inviting healthy disagreement during the analysis process to encourage candid dialogue.

AFH-1 15 Feb 2025

16.8. Groupthink

Reducing Groupthink. If groupthink is present, outside consultation may be required to get the group on the right track. In other cases, Airmen can work to minimize structural barriers to candid dialogue and reduce groupthink tendencies within their organization. Some ways to reduce groupthink include: defining roles within decision-making teams by giving responsibility to members for aspects of the analysis process and holding them accountable for representing these perspectives within the group and inviting healthy disagreement during the analysis process to encourage candid dialogue.

AFH-1 1 Nov 2024

16.9. Influence of Dissenting Airmen

What should you do if you are part of a group, and you are concerned the group will make a bad decision? It may seem obvious, but it is important that you speak up during the group's discussions.

Groups tend to make better decisions when exposed to an opposing view because group members become more likely to see the situation from different angles and reexamine premises.

AFH-1 15 Feb 2025

16.9. Influence of Dissenting Airmen

What should you do if you are part of a group, and you are concerned the group will make a bad decision? It may seem obvious, but it is important that you speak up during the group's discussions.

Groups tend to make better decisions when exposed to an opposing view because group members become more likely to see the situation from different angles.

AFH-1 1 Nov 2024

16.10. Critical Judgment

Professor Andrew J. DuBrin, Doctor of Industrial/Organizational Psychology, stated that a high performance team demands sincere and tactful criticism among members. In the USAF, it is imperative that feedback is welcomed and encouraged among team members, as well as from a broad spectrum of sources. Receiving information is a way of giving consideration to new, different, and often better ways of performing. The willingness to accept and show appreciation for constructive criticism increases self-awareness and improves team effectiveness. By encouraging and considering critical feedback, teams can redirect focus and energy to correct problems quickly rather than allowing them to intensify. For feedback or criticism to be productive, the collective purpose for the feedback must be for all parties involved to ultimately have the same expected outcome - to improve a process or procedure that positively contributes to the mission. Note: Despite the possibility that feedback can be negative, it can positively contribute to the mission if it is delivered without being shrouded in bias, hidden agendas, or unhealthy competition. Honesty is important; however, brutal honesty can be offensive. Giving constructive criticism requires a focus on fixing or improving upon a problem, not focusing on problems for personal or oppositional gain.

AFH-1 15 Feb 2025

16.10. Critical Judgment

Professor Andrew J. DuBrin, Doctor of Industrial/Organizational Psychology, stated that a high performance team demands sincere and tactful criticism among members. In the USAF, it is imperative that feedback is welcomed and encouraged among team members, as well as from a broad spectrum of sources. Receiving information is a way of giving consideration to new, different, and often better ways of performing. The willingness to accept and show appreciation for constructive criticism increases self-awareness and improves team effectiveness. By encouraging and considering critical feedback, teams can redirect focus and energy to correct problems quickly rather than allowing them to intensify. For feedback or criticism to be productive, the collective purpose for the feedback must be for all parties involved to ultimately have the same expected outcome - to improve a process or procedure that positively contributes to the mission. Note: Honesty is important; however, brutal honesty can be offensive. Giving constructive criticism requires a focus on fixing or improving upon a problem, not focusing on problems for personal or oppositional gain.

AFH-1 1 Nov 2024

16.22. Empowered Airmen Culture

The USAF aims to build a culture where we identify Airmen's needs, champion their solutions, eliminate roadblocks, push back detractors, and celebrate the innovative mindset. The Airmen of today are already well-versed in innovative technologies and will propel us into the USAF of tomorrow by integrating data-centric processes at the core of our operations. Machine learning and new technologies will lead us to a new age of human-to-machine teaming by putting Airmen 'on' the loop instead of 'in' the loop. The USAF will automate where appropriate to free Airmen to do human things while letting machines do machine things.

Maintaining our ability to adapt and innovate quickly is the greatest challenge we face in the future. Employing agility and inclusiveness, we are charged with a no-fail mission of providing effective Global Vigilance, Global Reach, and Global Power-today, tomorrow, and into the future. In modern war, no other nation has achieved such an asymmetric advantage. If the past two decades have taught us anything, it is that the demand for airpower is growing. The USAF will seek to increase innovation, and research where we need to maintain a competitive advantage.

AFH-1 15 Feb 2025

16.22. Empowered Airmen Culture

The USAF aims to build a culture where we identify Airmen's needs, champion their solutions, eliminate roadblocks, push back detractors, and celebrate the innovative mindset. The Airmen of today are already well-versed in innovative technologies and will propel us into the USAF of tomorrow by integrating data-centric processes at the core of our operations. Machine learning and new technologies will lead us to a new age of human-to-machine teaming by putting Airmen 'on' the loop instead of 'in' the loop. The USAF will automate where appropriate to free Airmen to do human things while letting machines do machine things.

Maintaining our ability to adapt and innovate quickly is the greatest challenge we face in the future. We are charged with a no-fail mission of providing effective Global Vigilance, Global Reach, and Global Power-today, tomorrow, and into the future. In modern war, no other nation has achieved such an asymmetric advantage. If the past two decades have taught us anything, it is that the demand for airpower is growing. The USAF will seek to increase innovation, and research where we need to maintain a competitive advantage.

AFH-1 1 Nov 2024

16.23. Collaboration Fosters Innovation

Airmen at all levels participate in decision-making. The habits of mind necessary to assure we apply critical thought are something we must consciously foster. Our diverse and highly educated force brings to the table a wide variety of views, experiences, and abilities; providing the USAF a deep pool of talent from which to draw ideas. By using the techniques of good decision-making and fostering the development of habits of mind, we tap into that rich pool of talent.

AFH-1 15 Feb 2025

16.23. Collaboration Fosters Innovation

Airmen at all levels participate in decision-making. The habits of mind necessary to assure we apply critical thought are something we must consciously foster. Our highly educated force brings to the table a wide variety of views, experiences, and abilities; providing the USAF a deep pool of talent from which to draw ideas. By using the techniques of good decision-making and fostering the development of habits of mind, we tap into that rich pool of talent.